BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Services Index

Soft service – PSI

15 Oct, 2018
53.9
September
+0.6
expanding
faster rate

New Zealand’s services sector experienced a slight increase in expansion during September, although still below its long run average, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for September was 53.9, which was 0.6 points higher than August (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  However, it was still below the long run average of 54.5 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that while the slight pick-up in expansion was obviously welcome, the sub-index results still show some areas for concern.
“Looking at the two key sub-index results, while activity/sales (56.1) recovered somewhat from a sizeable drop in expansion during August, new orders/business (56.1) decreased to its lowest level since April 2017.  Also, after three consecutive values at 49.9, employment (49.4) fell further into contraction to its lowest result since September 2012.

The proportion of positive comments in September (50.7%) also dropped by a fair margin compared with August (56.0%).” 

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “generally speaking, the NZ PSI, much like the QSBO, suggests the services industry is settling down into a trend-like pace. However, there is a risk Q3 could be a bit bumpy regarding output and employment”.

Kirk Hope

Kirk Hope

CEO, BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI

Services Landscape

The PSI

The service sector’s rate of expansion has definitely slowed over the last six months or so. However, it is also showing signs of stabilising close to a trend-like pace.
Read more

QSBO Services

There were also pockets of caution in the services component of the latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO), although the sector’s broader messages were of resilience. The concerns appeared to be more about immediate history than the way forth.
Read more

GDP Implication

As it turned out, the services sector was important in underpinning the 1.0% gain we saw in Q2 GDP (when other elements of GDP were hit by timing issues). And services remain important for achieving the GDP growth we expect over H2 2018, especially in light of the fiscal stimulus that’s been coming the way of NZ households since 1 July.
Read more

Craig Ebert

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Services Index (PSI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand service sector.

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Sep
2017
May
2018
Jun
2018
Jul
2018
Aug
2018
Sep
2018
BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI 56.3 56.8 52.8 54.9 53.3 53.9
Activity/Sales 56.7 57.9 54.8 57.8 53.9 56.1
Employment 53.1 53.1 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.4
New Orders/Business 61.2 63.9 58.3 59.8 58.6 56.1
Stocks/Inventories 52.5 54.3 50.8 51.2 52.0 53.8
Supplier Deliveries 53.7 53.1 48.2 51.1 52.5 52.3

BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

September 2014 – September 2018

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM

03 Oct 2018
53.0

About the PSI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index is a monthly survey of the service sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PSI reading above 50 points indicates service activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PSI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

PSI Releases

Uplift – PSI

Expansion levels for New Zealand's services sector saw a sizeable uplift in August, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).The PSI for August was 58.6 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding;...

Easing off – PSI

Expansion levels for New Zealand's services sector decreased in July, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).The PSI for July was 51.2 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it...

Consistent service – PSI

Activity levels for New Zealand’s services sector in June displayed almost identical levels to last month, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

Upwards momentum – PSI

Activity levels in New Zealand’s services sector displayed upwards momentum during May, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

Evening out – PSI

Activity levels in New Zealand’s services sector during April were almost identical to March, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Composite Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI displaying contrasting results during September.

The September GDP-Weighted Index (53.6) increased 0.3 points from August, while the Free-Weighted Index (52.9) fell a further 0.2 points.  The fact that the services sector displayed a slight improvement in expansion meant the former also showed an upswing in activity levels during September.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Sep
2017
May
2018
Jun
2018
Jul
2018
Aug
2018
Sep
2018
GDP-Weighted Index 56.4 56.6 52.9 54.5 53.3 53.6
Free-Weighted Index 56.9 56.2 53.3 53.8 53.1 52.9

BNZ – BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

September 2014 – September 2018

About the PCI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index (PCI) takes into account results from both the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and the Performance of Services Index (PSI). Combined results are shown in two ways:

GDP-Weighted Index:
Apportions the weight of the manufacturing and services index within the economy to produce an overall result.

Free-Weighted Index:
Combines data from both indexes to produce an overall result.

Both time series for the PCI are then seasonally adjusted.

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations