BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Services Index

Stuck in a rut

18 Nov, 2024
46.0
October
+0.3

Monthly Change

Contracting
Slower Rate

New Zealand’s services sector result for October remained in contraction, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for October was 46.0 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was up 0.3 points from September, but activity has varied by only 0.7 points over the last four months, which has kept the sector within a tight band of contractionary results. The October result is also still well below the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey.

BusinessNZ’s CEO, Katherine Rich said that the October result showed mixed results when broken down by sub-index values. While the New Orders/Business Index (48.1) was at its highest level since February 2024, the Activity/Sales Index (44.3) lost some momentum during October. The Employment Index (46.4) recovered some of its fall after a sizeable drop in September.

The proportion of negative comments for October stood at 59.1%, which was up from September at 58.5%, but down on 60.8% in August and 67.0% in both July and June. The cost of living and the general economic climate continued to dominate comments from respondents.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “although it is contracting at a much slower pace than it was in June (when the PSI was 41.1), the PSI has been hovering between 45 and 46 over the last four months. The activity outlook for the sector has improved in recent business surveys, but the here and now remains extremely challenging”.

Activity/Sales
44.3
Employment
46.4
New Orders/
Business
48.1
Stocks/Inventories
47.2
Supplier
Deliveries
46.9
48.1
51.9
47.7
41.7
Katherine Rich

Katherine Rich

CEO, BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI

Services Landscape

Still moving backwards

The Performance of Services Index (PSI) nudged up from 45.7 to 46.0 in October. The small movement doesn’t materially change the message of a services sector firmly in reverse.

Read more

Crawling in the right direction

While all the sub-indices remain in contraction, four of the five series moved slightly closer to breakeven. The PSI new orders index inched up to 48.1 from 46.8 and is the closest of the sub-indices to 50.

Read more

Improving from a weak base

The PSI retail trade index improved to 50.3 on an unadjusted basis but remains well below its historical average of 54.0 for October.

Read more

Struggling for traction

Combining the PMI and PSI, the Composite Index (PCI) suggests GDP is still tracking below year earlier levels. Our economic forecasts are for GDP to contract again in Q3 before starting to gradually recover.

Read more

Doug Steel

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Services Index (PSI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand service sector.

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Oct 2023 Jun 2024 Jul 2024 Aug 2024 Sep 2024 Oct 2024
BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI 49.3 41.1 45.3 45.8 45.7 46.0
Activity/Sales 47.6 36.7 41.4 44.3 45.6 44.3
Employment 49.4 45.8 46.9 49.3 45.7 46.4
New Orders/Business 51.9 39.5 47.1 46.9 46.8 48.1
Stocks/Inventories 51.0 44.5 45.7 45.2 46.9 47.2
Supplier Deliveries 49.1 41.6 41.2 43.9 43.7 46.9

BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

January 2019 – October 2024

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM

06 Nov 2024
53.1
USA
55.0
UK
52.0
Eurozone
51.6
China
52.0
Japan
49.7
Australia
51.0
NZ
46.0

About the PSI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index is a monthly survey of the service sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PSI reading above 50 points indicates service activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PSI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

Technical Contact

Stephen Summers
Economist, BusinessNZ

[email protected]

PSI Releases

Same same

September's result for New Zealand’s services sector remained the same as August, although still firmly in contraction mode, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). The PSI for September was 45.7 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that...

Slow crawl

Activity in New Zealand’s services sector inched its way higher during August, although still firmly in contraction territory, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). The PSI for August was 45.5 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that...

Relative progress

Activity in New Zealand’s services sector for July showed some improvement after a horrendous June result, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). The PSI for July was 44.6 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is...

Sinking

Activity in New Zealand’s services sector sunk even further during June, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). The PSI for June was 40.2 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0...

Bottom of the Barrel

Activity in New Zealand’s services sector dropped to its lowest level of activity for a non-COVID lockdown month since the survey began, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). The PSI for May was 43.0 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates...

BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Composite Index

46.1

GDP-Weighted Index

46.2

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw mixed results for the two indexes during October.

The October GDP-Weighted Index (46.1) lifted 0.2 points from September, while the Free-Weighted Index (46.2) decreased 0.2 points.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Oct 2023 Jun 2024 Jul 2024 Aug 2024 Sep 2024 Oct 2024
GDP-Weighted Index 48.8 41.3 45.3 45.9 45.9 46.1
Free-Weighted Index 46.8 41.5 45.1

45.8 46.4 46.2

BNZ – BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

January 2020 – October 2024

About the PCI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index (PCI) takes into account results from both the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and the Performance of Services Index (PSI). Combined results are shown in two ways:

GDP-Weighted Index:
Apportions the weight of the manufacturing and services index within the economy to produce an overall result.

Free-Weighted Index:
Combines data from both indexes to produce an overall result.

Both time series for the PCI are then seasonally adjusted.

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations