BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Manufacturing
Index

Flat end to year – PMI

22 Jan, 2021
48.7
December
-6.0

Monthly Change

contracting
previously expanding

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector experienced contraction for the last month of 2020, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for December was 48.7 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was down 6.0 points from November, and the lowest level of activity since May.

BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that after six consecutive months in expansion, the December result was a disappointing way to end the year.

“While production (51.5) managed to keep its head above water, the other key sub-index of new orders (49.9) failed to record expansion.  Employment (49.9) also fell just below the 50.0 point mark, while finished stocks (45.9) and deliveries (44.5) both fell well into contraction.”

“Interestingly, the December value was the same as the overall average result of 48.7 for 2020.  While seven of the twelve months saw expansion in the sector, the effects of COVID-19 and the subsequent lock-down saw a dramatic fall in activity during the first half of 2020 that brought the overall average down.”   

BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that “the PMI’s three-month moving average sits at an expansionary 51.8, albeit below its long-term average of 53.0. This all suggests some expansion in the final quarter of last year, but the softer December month suggests some caution heading into the New Year.”

Catherine Beard

Catherine Beard

Director, Advocacy BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Manufacturing Snapshot

End of Year Dip

December’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) slipped to 48.7. This is a bit disappointing, although not completely surprising given it did follow six consecutive months being above the expansionary 50 mark including an above-average reading of 54.7 in November.
Read more

Patchy

It is difficult to judge the underlying trends with large swings in component details. Volatility has been more pronounced than usual in the PMI stocks of finished product component.
Read more

Home and Away

Actual performance no doubt depends on what you are selling and to whom. For example, the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion saw NZ manufacturers’ reports of local sales above average for the past three months, while reports of export sales have lifted but remain below average.
Read more

Employment

The PMI employment index eased to 49.9 in December, so back below average and edging back into contractionary territory.
Read more

Doug Steel

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand manufacturing sector.

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Dec
2019
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI 48.9 50.9 53.6 52.1 54.7 48.7
Production 47.4 51.6 55.9 51.8 55.0 51.5
Employment 49.5 49.2 51.5 52.3 51.3 49.9
New Orders 50.0 54.1 57.2 53.2 56.5 49.9
Finished Stocks 52.8 50.0 48.8 49.0 59.2 45.9
Deliveries 49.8 47.9 49.7 49.1 51.5 44.5

BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

December 2016 – December 2020

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM

04 Jan 2021
53.8

About the PMI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PMI reading above 50 points indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PMI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

PMI Releases

Building blocks – PMI

New Zealand's manufacturing sector saw another lift in expansion for August, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for August was 54.9 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is...

On the margins – PMI

New Zealand's manufacturing sector rose back into expansion for July, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).The seasonally adjusted PMI for July was 52.7 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally...

Mid year blues – PMI

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector fell back into contraction for the first time since the most recent national lock-down in August 2021, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

Soldering on – PMI

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector remained under its long-term average level of activity for May, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

Slow grind – PMI

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector experienced a lower level of expansion during April, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations