BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Manufacturing
Index

North vs South – PMI

15 Oct, 2021
51.4
September
+11.7

Monthly Change

expanding
previously contracting

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector saw an overall return to expansion for September, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for September was 51.4 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was 11.7 points higher than August, but still someway off levels of expansion typically seen pre-lockdown.

BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that while the positive national result for September was encouraging, it masked a few underlying issues.

“Prior to the lockdown, the PMI averaged close to 60 since the start of 2021, which means expansion has some way to go before getting back to what was seen during the first half of the year.  Also, there is currently a clear difference between the two islands with the North Island still in contraction, while the South Island has swiftly returned to levels of expansion seen pre-August.”

“In addition, the proportion of negative comments from respondents remains high at 71%, although slightly down from the 78% recorded in August.”

BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert stated that “the rebound the PMI experienced in September was encouraging, although the survey is not without some still‐frayed parts.  Credit where it’s due though, as the NZ PMI traced much less of a contraction, and quicker stabilisation, compared to what it went through during the initial outbreak of COVID‐19.”

Catherine Beard

Catherine Beard

Director, Advocacy BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Manufacturing Snapshot

PMI

The Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rebounded to an expansive 51.4 in September, from the 39.7 level it dipped to in August. Generally speaking, that’s encouraging – although the survey is not without some still‐frayed parts.
Read more

Diverse dynamics

Still, not all in the latest PMI was positive. To be sure, new orders were almost back to “normal” with a reading of 54.3 in September. And the employment index remained well above its long‐term average of 50.6, with a 54.4.
Read more

North versus South

The other reason to be a little guarded about the PMI’s latest index reading is that the clear majority of respondents’ comments this month had a negative skew. These were, unsurprisingly, dominated by references to the COVIDwrought lockdowns, with Auckland’s situation lamented by firms right across the country.
Read more

QSBO comparison

As for last week’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO), this showed a relatively resilient tone amongst manufacturers. Production was expanding, and expectations around exports were upbeat.
Read more

Craig Ebert

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand manufacturing sector.

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Sep
2020
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI 53.7 58.3 59.8 62.4 39.7 51.4
Production 56.6 64.6 62.7 63.9 27.2 49.9
Employment 51.4 52.4 56.4 57.7 54.3 54.5
New Orders 57.3 63.5 62.7 63.2 44.1 54.3
Finished Stocks 50.1 53.1 56.9 56.4 45.9 50.1
Deliveries 50.2 53.6 54.2 56.1 33.1 47.8

BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

September 2017 – September 2021

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM

01 Oct 2021
54.1

About the PMI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PMI reading above 50 points indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PMI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

Technical Contact

Stephen Summers
Economist, BusinessNZ

[email protected]

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Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations