BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Manufacturing
Index

Retreat

13 Dec, 2024
45.5
November
-0.2

Monthly Change

Contracting
Faster Rate

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to show contraction at a faster rate during November, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for November was 45.5 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was down from 45.7 in October, and the lowest level of activity since July 2024. The sector has now been in contraction for 21 consecutive months.

BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that any momentum built over the July-September period has now reverted back to a retreat for the sector.

“The key sub-index result for Production (42.5) fell another 1.5 points from October to be at its lowest level of activity since June 2024, while New Orders (44.8) fell back 3.7 points to be at its lowest result since July 2024. Employment (46.9) has remained within a tight band of contraction for the last four months, while both Finished Stocks (49.3) and Deliveries (49.9) improved.

The proportion of negative comments from respondents stood at 56% in November. This was up from 53.5% in October, but down from 63.5% in September, 64.2% in August and 71.1% in July. Negative comments during October showed similar patterns to previous months, with a focus on a lack of orders and cost of living.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “the main message of a manufacturing sector still under significant pressure remains. Recent business surveys report that manufacturers are feeling more confident about the outlook, but there is scant evidence of a general turnaround in activity to date”.

Production
42.5
Employment
46.9
New Orders
44.8
Finished Stocks
49.3
Deliveries
49.9
50.8
48.8
50.8
52.5
Catherine Beard

Catherine Beard

Director, Advocacy BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Manufacturing Snapshot

Contraction continues

The Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) eased slightly from 45.7 to 45.5 in November. While the PMI slowly moved towards the breakeven 50 mark over the September quarter, it has since retreated in both October and November.

Read more

Sub-indices still struggling

While movements in the PMI sub-indices were mixed in November, they are all still stuck below average. The PMI deliveries index improved the most from 44.9 to 49.9 and is showing signs of stabilisation.

Read more

Manufacturing sales volumes weak in Q3

Recent official data confirmed weak manufacturing sales in Q3. Core sales volumes (excluding meat and dairy) decreased 2.3% q/q in Q3. The PMI points to sales volumes falling again in Q4 and by more than many might care to believe.

Read more

Lower interest rates will help

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the OCR by 50 basis points to 4.25% in November, in line with economists’ estimates. If economic conditions evolve in line with its projections, the RBNZ expects to lower the OCR further early next year.

Read more

Doug Steel

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand manufacturing sector.

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Nov 2023 Jul 2024 Aug 2024 Sep 2024 Oct 2024 Nov 2024
BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI 47.4 44.5 46.1 46.9 45.7 45.5
Production 44.6 44.3 46.4 47.7 44.0 42.5
Employment 48.9 43.4 46.8 46.8 46.0 46.9
New Orders 49.2 43.3 47.3 47.6 48.5 44.8
Finished Stocks 50.1 46.3 46.2 46.8 47.8 49.3
Deliveries 47.7 44.7 45.9 45.7 44.9 49.9

BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

January 2020 – November 2024

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM

04 Nov 2024
49.4
USA
49.7
UK
48.0
Eurozone
45.2
China
51.5
Japan
49.0
Australia
49.4
NZ
45.5

About the PMI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PMI reading above 50 points indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PMI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

Technical Contact

Stephen Summers
Economist, BusinessNZ

[email protected]

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Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations