BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Manufacturing
Index

Back in the red

13 Jun, 2025
47.5
May
-5.8

Monthly Change

Contracting
Previously Expanding

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector fell back into contraction during May, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for May was 47.5 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was down from 53.3 in April and a return to contraction after four consecutive months of expansion.  The survey was also well below the average of 52.5 since it began.

BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that the May result was disappointing to see given the sector had appeared to have turned a corner at the start of 2025 following a tough 2023-2024 period of contraction.

“Four of the five main sub-index values were in decline, with New Orders (45.3) showing the strongest level of contraction for May. Following healthy expansion from February-April, Employment (45.7) decreased 8.9 points to be at its lowest level of activity since July 2024″.

The return to contraction also saw the proportion of negative comments from respondents increase to 64.5%, compared with 58% in April and 57.5% in March.  Comments indicate that manufacturers are reporting a clear return to decline, driven by falling demand, weak orders, and low business confidence. Rising costs, economic uncertainty, and reduced consumer spending are compounding pressures, while forward orders and investment remain stalled.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “the New Zealand economy can claw its way forward over the course of 2025, but the PMI is yet another indicator that suggests an increased risk that the bounce in GDP reported for Q4, 2024 and Q1, 2025 could come to a grinding halt”.

Production
48.7
Employment
45.7
New Orders
45.3
Finished Stocks
51.3
Deliveries
49.2
47.3
47.1
51.7
31.1
Catherine Beard

Catherine Beard

Director, Advocacy BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Manufacturing Snapshot

Back in the red

The Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) dropped sharply from 53.3 to 47.5 in May. After four consecutive months in expansion, the PMI has steeply fallen back below the breakeven 50 mark.

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All below average

Weakness in May was broad-based, with all the PMI subindexes declining and below their historical averages. Of some concern, the PMI new orders index is particularly weak at 45.3.

Read more

Headwinds into Q2

Core manufacturing sales volumes (excluding meat and dairy) increased 1.4% q/q in Q1 2025. This was consistent with earlier PMI readings, which averaged 52.9 in Q1.

Read more

Tariff uncertainty ongoing

The front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs has supported global manufacturing activity. However, offshore survey indicators suggest that manufacturing activity weakened in May.

Read more

Doug Steel

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand manufacturing sector.

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies May 2024 Jan 2025 Feb 2025 Mar 2025 Apr 2025 May 2025
BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI 47.5 51.8 54.0 52.9 53.3 47.5
Production 45.4 51.8 52.6 53.6 53.0 48.7
Employment 50.4 51.0 54.1 54.6 54.6 45.7
New Orders 45.3 51.4 51.5 49.5 50.8 45.3
Finished Stocks 52.6 52.5 54.4 56.0 52.9 51.3
Deliveries 46.7 52.2 56.0 55.1 55.4 49.2

BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

January 2020 – May 2025

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM

04 Jun 2025
49.6
USA
52.0
UK
46.4
Eurozone
49.4
China
48.3
Japan
49.4
Australia
51.0
NZ
47.5

About the PMI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PMI reading above 50 points indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PMI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

Technical Contact

Stephen Summers
Economist, BusinessNZ

[email protected]

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Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations